The 2020 Golden Globes broadcast kicks off awards season Sunday, January 5, and here are all our predictions for the film categories of this year’s ceremony. The Golden Globes, sponsored by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (HFPA) and hosted this year by Ricky Gervais, has always shaped the conversation heading into awards season and served as a predictor for the Academy Awards nominations, which will be released on January 13 this year. Though the guild awards (Screen Actors Guild, Producers Guild, Directors Guild, etc.) often have a stronger statistical correlation with eventual Academy Award winners, the Golden Globes nevertheless give an early impression about which films can expect to vie for Oscar gold.

This year’s awards season is slowly rounding into shape with the late-year releases like 1917 and Bombshell joining summer successes like Joker and Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood. Netflix made a significant splash in the nominations pool with Marriage Story, The Two Popes, Dolemite Is My Name, and The Irishman, but time will tell whether Netflix’s prestige releases will break through against traditional studio competition.

The HFPA can be fickle with its history of head-scratching nominations (never forget The Tourist had three nominations in 2011), and the Golden Globes ceremony is often seen as more of a party than a serious arbiter of art. Still, we’ll try to predict this year’s results. Here are our predictions for the 2020 Golden Globe Movie Winners.

BEST MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

Nominees

  • 1917 The Irishman Joker Marriage Story The Two Popes

Who Will Win: 1917

Who Should Win: Marriage Story

Should Have Been a Contender: Honey Boy, Midsommar

This category will speak volumes about the pervasiveness of Hollywood’s traditional prejudices: three Netflix releases compete against a comic book film and a war film. Last year’s Oscars saw Green Book defeat the favored Roma, and many thought that was a case of the traditional studio film triumphing against the streaming service release, and though Black Panther broke through last year’s awards season, its wins were relegated to the technical categories. This year we see a similar dynamic, and while the Scorsese/De Niro/Pesci reunion, The Irishman, leads the way among the streaming candidates and Joker has a legitimate chance to break through, 1917 checks so many awards season boxes that it’s difficult to bet against it.

Marriage Story, with its quiet, understated dynamics and its perfect story structure, is an artistic marvel, but will likely come behind its flashier competition. Midsommar, Ari Aster’s summer horror, proved that genre films, no matter how artistic, still face a handicap in the awards circuit.

BEST MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

  • Dolemite Is My Name Jojo Rabbit Knives Out Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood Rocketman

Who Will Win: Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

Who Should Win: Jojo Rabbit

Should Have Been a Contender: Booksmart

Early predictions hyperbolically claimed that Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi’s anti-hate, anti-nationalism satire, was going to dominate this year’s awards, but that star has faded, and the consistent entrant on many best of the year lists has been Quentin Tarantino’s pastiche of 1969 Hollywood. Also, Tarantino netted a directing nomination, and every other film’s director in this category did not, indicating the voting body’s early leanings.

Arguably one of the year’s funniest films, Olivia Wilde’s Booksmart, is absent from the comedy category. While Knives Out, Rian Johnson’s whodunnit, Rocketman, the Elton John musical biopic, and Dolemite Is My Name, the Netflix Rudy Ray Moore biopic, have their fans, this looks like a two-film race with the Globe going to the summer favorite.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

  • Christian Bale - Ford vs. Ferrari Antonio Banderas - Pain and Glory Adam Driver - Marriage Story Joaquin Phoenix - Joker Jonathan Pryce - The Two Popes

Who Will Win: Joaquin Phoenix

Who Should Win: Joaquin Phoenix

Should Have Been a Contender: Adam Sandler, Uncut Gems

The acting categories have shown some give in the anti-comic book bias that characterized the past two decades of comic book movie resurgence with the Joker role already honoring Heath Ledger with an awards season sweep in 2009, and Phoenix, netting his sixth Golden Globe nomination, has transcended the comic book genre expectations with his portrayal of Arthur Fleck, a clown whose mental breakdown pushes him to become the Gotham’s Clown Prince of Crime.

Dark horse candidate Antonio Banderas in Pain and Glory, Pedro Almodovar’s story of a film director’s physical decline, and Adam Driver present the most serious competition to Phoenix. Adam Sandler’s absence is a shock as the Safdie Brothers’ Uncut Gems once again proved that they can make audiences reconsider what they know of an actor’s ability, just as they did with Robert Pattinson in Good Time.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – DRAMA

  • Cynthia Erivo - Harriet Scarlett Johansson - Marriage Story Saoirse Ronan - Little Women Charlize Theron - Bombshell Renee Zellweger - Judy

Who Will Win: Renee Zellweger

Who Should Win: Renee Zellweger

Should Have Been a Contender: Florence Pugh, Midsommar

The strongest category of the slate, a legitimate argument can be made for every actress on the list. Cynthia Erivo’s compelling turn as Harriet Tubman, Charlize Theron’s chameleonic transformation into Megyn Kelly, Saoirse Ronan’s modern take on a classic character, and Scarlett Johansson’s nuanced restraint as an actress/director going through a messy divorce all present strong competition to Renee Zellweger who sings, dances, and embodies the troubled Judy Garland.

Even if she were included, Florence Pugh catapulting to stardom with her searing work in Midsommar and strong roles in Little Women and Fighting with My Family this year likely wouldn’t be able to topple Zellweger, who seemed to be the favorite ever since the set photos of her as Garland were released.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

  • Daniel Craig - Knives Out Roman Griffin Davis - Jojo Robbit Leonardo DiCaprio - Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood Taron Egerton - Rocketman Eddie Murphy - Dolemite Is My Name

Who Will Win: Eddie Murphy

Who Should Win: Taron Egerton

Should Have Been a Contender: Shia La Beouf, The Peanut Butter Falcon

Hollywood loves a comeback story, and Eddie Murphy is nuanced, funny, and brilliant as Rudy Ray Moore, a struggling comedian who finds success channeling a staple of African-American folklore in Netflix’s Dolemite Is My Name. While Murphy’s last awards push, Dreamgirls, suffered from its concurrent release with Norbit in 2006-7, this year Murphy rides a wave of goodwill after his recent return to SNL. His most serious competition comes from HFPA-favorite Leonardo DiCaprio who collects his twelfth nomination.

Murphy is a strong candidate, but Egerton has a similar challenge plus the added difficulty of pulling off Rocketman’s complex song and dance numbers. Shia LaBeouf continues his strong year in The Peanut Butter Falcon, a film that has been absent from this year’s contenders but still deserves attention.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A MOTION PICTURE – MUSICAL OR COMEDY

  • Ana de Armas - Knives Out Awkwafina - The Farewell Cate Blanchett - Where’d You Go, Bernadette? Beanie Feldstein - Booksmart Emma Thompson - Late Night

Who Will Win: Awkwafina

Who Should Win: Awkwafina

Should Have Been a Contender: Kaitlyn Dever, Booksmart; Jillian Bell, Brittany Runs a Marathon

Often the Musical/Comedy winner isn’t the funniest performance on the list (Beanie Feldstein or the absent Kaitlyn Dever from Booksmart); rather, the winner is the most dramatic, showy role that happens to be in a comedy. Last year’s winner Olivia Colman (The Favourite) benefited from that paradigm, and the same will likely be true for front-runners Awkwafina and Ana de Armas. Similarly, the inclusion of Emma Thompson and Cate Blanchett is surprising over Jillian Bell, whose performance has been forgotten this awards season and who runs the full gamut of drama and comedy in Brittany Runs a Marathon.

The Farewell deals with weighty themes like clashes of cultures and facing mortality – a difficult balance of comedy and drama held together by the film’s lead – and while Knives Out is fun, Awkwafina has more on her plate than her closest competitor.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE

  • Tom Hanks - A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood Anthony Hopkins - The Two Popes Al Pacino - The Irishman Joe Pesci -The Irishman Brad Pitt - Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

 Who Will Win: Joe Pesci

Who Should Win: Joe Pesci

Should Have Been a Contender: Shia LaBeouf, Honey Boy

Coming out of retirement for one more film with the creative team that produced his best work, Joe Pesci gives a menacing performance as De Niro’s mobster mentor in Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman. On the other end of the spectrum is Tom Hanks playing Fred Rogers, and he and Brad Pitt could benefit from an Irishman vote split (Pesci versus castmate Al Pacino).

Honey Boy hopes for more inclusion during the Oscar voting, but if nothing else, LaBeouf’s work this year has pushed him beyond whatever stains The Transformers movies have left on his career. Nevertheless, expect Pesci to score his first Globe win in his third nomination.

BEST PERFORMANCE BY AN ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE IN ANY MOTION PICTURE

  • Kathy Bates - Richard Jewell Annette Bening - The Report Laura Dern - Marriage Story Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers Margot Robbie - Bombshell

 Who Will Win: Jennifer Lopez

Who Should Win: Margot Robbie

Should Have Been a Contender: Scarlett Johansson, Jojo Rabbit

Jennifer Lopez danced her way into awards season as the early favorite, and there’s no indication that her turn as exotic dancer/con artist in Hustlers has lost any of its early luster. While Laura Dern as a tough divorce attorney in Marriage Story is picking up steam down the stretch, Lopez has seemed unstoppable. Oft-nominated Hollywood royalty like Kathy Bates and Annette Bening collect their eighth and ninth nominations respectively, but expect the Globe to go to the more buzzy films.

Margot Robbie shines in a film stacked with solid performances, and Johansson’s inclusion with the Screen Actors Guild nominations makes her snub here a bit head-scratching. Once the Oscar nominations are released, this will be a three-person race between Lopez, Dern, and Johansson, but for Globes the safe money is on Lopez.

BEST DIRECTOR – MOTION PICTURE

  • Bong Joon Ho - Parasite Sam Mendes - 1917 Todd Phillips - Joker Martin Scorsese - The Irishman Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood

 Who Will Win: Quentin Tarantino

Who Should Win: Bong Joon Ho

Should Have Been a Contender: Lulu Wang, The Farewell; Alma Har’el, Honey Boy; Lorene Scafaria, Hustlers; Greta Gerwig, Little Women; Marielle Heller, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood

This year’s list of all-male directors caused controversy, and there were plenty of potential female candidates. Of the nominees, the clash of Tarantino and Scorsese is one to watch. Scorsese has won the award three times, but Tarantino would be picking up his first award for directing. And with Bong Joon Ho virtually guaranteed to win in the Foreign Language category, it’s likely that the voters will choose to spread the wealth, netting Tarantino the win.

That’s to say nothing of Bong’s work in Parasite. Never has a three-act structure felt so operatic. The pitch-perfect editing, pacing, camera movements, performances, and screenplay of Parasite make it a masterpiece. Bong achieves a level of cinematic brilliance that should make it an awards season darling if he weren’t up against Hollywood titans like Scorsese and Tarantino.

Other Categories

BEST MOTION PICTURE – FOREIGN LANGUAGE

  • The Farewell (USA) Les Miserables (FRANCE) Pain and Glory (SPAIN) Parasite (SOUTH KOREA) Portrait of a Lady on Fire (FRANCE)

Who Will Win: Parasite

Who Should Win: Parasite

Because it’s not in English, Parasite is ineligible to compete in the Best Picture category, but one of the year’s best won’t go home empty-handed, netting at least one Globe in this category, despite strong competition from Pain and Glory.

BEST SCREENPLAY – MOTION PICTURE

  • Noah Baumbach - Marriage Story Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won - Parasite Anthony McCarten - The Two Popes Quentin Tarantino - Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood Steven Zaillian - The Irishman

Who Will Win: Noah Baumbach

Who Should Win: Bong Joon Ho and Han Jin Won

Sweeps have been less common in recent awards seasons, so expect a “spread the wealth” mentality to honor Noah Baumbach’s Marriage Story here over Tarantino who’s favored in the directing category.

BEST MOTION PICTURE – ANIMATED

  • Frozen 2 How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World The Lion King Missing Link Toy Story 4

Who Will Win: Toy Story 4

Who Should Win: Toy Story 4

The Lion King (2019) wasn’t submitted as an animated film, but it’s nominated here; shade thrown by HFPA. For the winner in the battle of sequels, Toy Story 4 will most likely topple Frozen 2.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE – MOTION PICTURE

  • Alexandre Desplat - Little Women  Hildur Guonadottir - Joker  Randy Newman - Marriage Story Thomas Newman - 1917 Daniel Pemberton - Motherless Brooklyn

Who Will Win: Thomas Newman

Who Should Win: Alexandre Desplat

Defeating his cousin Randy Newman, Thomas Newman’s haunting 1917 score plays such a large part in why that film is so compelling.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG – MOTION PICTURE

  • “Beautiful Ghosts” - Cats, Music and Lyrics by: Andrew Lloyd Webber, Taylor Swift “I’m Gonna Love Me Again” - Rocketman, Music and Lyrics by: Elton John, Bernie Taupin “Into the Unknown” - Frozen 2, Music and Lyrics by: Kristen Anderson-Lopez, Robert Lopez “Spirit” - The Lion King, Music and Lyrics by: Timothy McKenzie, Ilya Salmanzadeh, Beyoncé “Stand Up” - Harriet, Music and Lyrics by: Joshuah Brian Campbell, Cynthia Erivo

Who Will Win: “I’m Gonna Love Me Again”

Who Should Win: “Into the Unknown”

Remember when Cats was an awards-contender? Its sole nomination is left over from early hype, but it has fallen behind the three-song race of Elton John, Beyonce, and Frozen 2. The HFPA failed to award “Let It Go” in this category, so look for that trend to continue with John and longtime writing partner, Bernie Taupin picking up the victory.

The Golden Globe Awards will air Sunday, January 5 at 8:00 ET on NBC.

More: Oscars 2020: Best Director Predictions